So you made it by way of the second set of Democratic debates. Congratulations! Ready to speak about the subsequent ones?
The Democratic National Committee has set stricter standards for the third set of debates, which might be held on Sept. 12 and Sept. 13 in Houston. If 10 or fewer candidates qualify, the debate will happen on just one evening.
[The race is fluid, and different issues we discovered from the July Democratic debates.]
Candidates might want to have 130,000 distinctive donors and register at the very least 2 p.c assist in 4 polls. They have till Aug. 28 to achieve these benchmarks.
These standards may simply halve the subject: The first two units of debates included 20 of the 24 candidates, however a New York Times evaluation of polls and donor numbers exhibits that solely 10 to 12 candidates are more likely to make the third spherical.
Eight candidates have already met both qualification thresholds and are guaranteed a spot onstage. They are:
Ms. Klobuchar’s campaign announced on Friday that she had exceeded the required number of donors in the days following the debate. She had already met the polling threshold.
Two other candidates are very close: The former housing secretary Julián Castro and the entrepreneur Andrew Yang have surpassed 130,000 donors and each have three of the four qualifying polls they need. Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii has also crossed the 130,000-donor mark, her campaign said Friday, but she has only one qualifying poll so far.
Beyond them, only two candidates have even a single qualifying poll to their name: the impeachment activist Tom Steyer (two polls) and former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado (one).
We asked their campaigns to provide donor numbers so we could assess where they stood. A spokesman for Mr. Steyer said he was “on track to collect the required number of donors to make the September debate stage” but did not give a number. Mr. Hickenlooper’s campaign did not respond, but Politico reported a month ago that he had only 13,000 donors.
The other 11 candidates in the race have no qualifying polls to their name, and they all went into this week’s debates seeking a viral moment that would attract new donors and lift them, even briefly, in the polls.
The qualification rules do not require enduring support. Even a small post-debate surge could push a 1 percent candidate up to 2 percent in the small handful of polls he or she needs.
But for those who have not qualified, the Aug. 28 deadline is an existential threat. Candidates like Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York or Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington could be washed out of the race if they don’t get momentum from this week’s debates. And if you’re wondering whether they’re anxious, the answer is yes.
Ms. Gabbard’s campaign calculated at one point that she needed a new donor every minute to reach 130,000 by the Aug. 28 deadline. Visitors to her website saw a timer next to the donation button that began counting down 60 seconds. Then the text changed.
“🙁 Oh no!” it said. “The time expired and you didn’t donate!”
It must have been effective. Ms. Gabbard now has more than 145,000 donors, her campaign said Friday night.